Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 10.213772 11.980326 13.910793 16.170383 18.735724 21.550581 24.865618
2025-01-19 7.249386 9.590252 12.409162 16.022626 20.497305 25.820187 32.590895
2025-01-26 5.931199 8.674773 12.252341 17.182750 23.713397 31.970577 43.088177
2025-02-02 4.903513 7.837757 11.938736 17.949787 26.370585 37.560601 53.329081
2025-02-09 4.137787 7.165765 11.667200 18.629534 28.861809 43.039983 63.787999
2025-02-16 3.389088 6.344699 11.006527 18.591151 30.243554 47.017391 72.412647
2025-02-23 2.718112 5.497987 10.144614 18.081954 30.799732 49.771751 79.411442
2025-03-02 2.155665 4.711740 9.236503 17.340253 30.857357 51.712184 85.263283
2025-03-09 1.808132 4.241785 8.778262 17.251027 31.889010 55.139388 93.494726
2025-03-16 1.497037 3.772986 8.240640 16.937116 32.484075 57.878994 100.787006
2025-03-23 1.374092 3.668583 8.361575 17.797693 35.119883 64.029053 113.774061
2025-03-30 1.200797 3.414729 8.149033 18.004159 36.610244 68.370574 124.071332
2025-04-06 1.024645 3.122266 7.829149 17.996880 37.770437 72.330264 134.151440
2025-04-13 0.876738 2.864252 7.542991 18.024181 39.002177 76.509883 144.884388
2025-04-20 0.841105 2.891264 7.887496 19.374394 42.838019 85.464850 164.203481
2025-04-27 0.776084 2.822146 8.001036 20.247827 45.817082 93.068134 181.581571
2025-05-04 0.711058 2.736716 8.061737 21.009280 48.627506 100.519353 199.056335
2025-05-11 0.612870 2.523940 7.776807 20.969585 49.816382 105.058319 211.595683
2025-05-18 0.506337 2.250852 7.290195 20.406161 49.869095 107.464231 220.406207
2025-05-25 0.407785 1.969540 6.727050 19.583952 49.289201 108.608081 226.940898
2025-06-01 0.349718 1.813671 6.478044 19.485071 50.244088 112.749499 239.193648
2025-06-08 0.292919 1.640973 6.147234 19.136799 50.611029 115.741309 249.412595
2025-06-15 0.278039 1.636412 6.316948 20.091455 53.975433 124.882042 271.706102